Stephen Elop, CEO of Nokia, has now famously been quoted for his “burning platform” memo, but with today’s announcement that Nokia will be taking up Windows Phone 7 as its leading smartphone operating system, what we are seeing is the burning of everything good in Nokia. It seems that the Nokia employees may agree, walking out early in protest, and perhaps not just in fear of their jobs. Nokia’s stock price fluctuated down at least 14% on the announcement too.
I don’t know why the decision was made, and it is a surprise decision, to me at least, because it appears so destructive. As many have commented already, this is a big win for Microsoft and a capitulation for Nokia. They have done what they said they wished to avoid, becoming just another ODM shifting boxes; Nokia instead of fighting to maintain their ecosystem have ceded it in their deal with Microsoft: the Ovi Store is being rolled into the Windows Marketplace; Qt a large selling point up to now for its write once, run anywhere potential has been diminished by the decision to not bring it to Windows Phone; and finally, Windows Phone is not even a Nokia exclusive. The fear of not being able to differentiate among all the Android vendors, is just as applicable here.
Without explicitly saying it, we are seeing the probable end of any future for MeeGo on handsets from Nokia, with only plans for a MeeGo ‘device’ sometime later this year; I cannot see how Microsoft would allow Nokia to put out a competing handset in the wording of the deal, so I believe it will be another experimental internet device.
As for Symbian, any reason to buy the quite accomplished hardware-wise Nokia Symbian handsets has been destroyed, out of fear for a lack of long-term updates and developer support. For example, personally I find the Nokia N8 a compelling device technologically. It has advanced hardware such as Bluetooth 3, USB OTG, a 12 Megapixel Carl Zeiss camera with xenon flash, 802.11n wireless and HDMI out. Its design is an improvement over its forerunners, but despite the much improved Symbian over the version in my current phone (Nokia N82) its still off putting, because I know and have known that despite this announcement, Symbian had a limited future, especially in the high-end — such was said a year ago by Nokia. We all expected MeeGo to be taking over around now, and it certainly had strong potential, and good partnerships to back it up, fitting in as well to a cogent broader strategy to maximise distribution on multiple devices and increase attractiveness and ease for developers.
In contrast, the situation painted at the Nokia capital markets meeting is that of fragmentation and further delay. Again, as others have rightly pointed out, an uncertain future for MeeGo, a limited one for Symbian and a delayed one for Windows Phone — with devices not expected in number till 2012 — where is the incentive for either customer or developer? I am not denying that Nokia may come out with compelling handsets running Microsoft’s mobile operating system, in a year or so, but there has been massive betrayal of expectant end-users and especially developers; not to mention partners such as Intel, and the Linux Foundation.
Now for my brutal opinion. I believe that Stephen Elop has done this for ideological reasons, increasing the partnership with Microsoft to an unprecedented degree. Nokia’s fate is now largely tied to Microsoft, which is an unenviable situation given Microsoft’s history of bad relations with partners; Microsoft’s fate is nowhere tied to Nokia, at all. It’s simply a poor deal, from what we’ve seen so far. I do not believe it will be successful in coming anywhere near the dominant market leaders. I think that Nokia was seriously innovating in openness, and that it is the leveraging of open source technologies that will define the future of mobile technology. I don’t know the state of MeeGo but surely it would have been less effort to accelerate MeeGo’s development than to change in such a startling and comprehensive manner?
